Has the time come for intelligent homes?

Lately I've been considering the history and future of Home Automation, especially as it relates to other consumer products. For example, it appears (to me at least) that over the past 5-10 years new automobiles have become much more intelligent than the average home. Most modern cars have computers that coordinate and control the various systems, and the higher end cars have fairly sophisticated interfaces for the user. Car manufacturers have embraced automation fairly well.

My house, in contrast, is dumb as a rock. It could experience an appliance water hose failure and sit mute as thousands of dollars in damage are done, until some one comes home and reacts. In fact, even the most sophisticated systems required by code (smoke detection, for example) seem geared toward inhabitant safety more so than structure safety.

I’ve found it interesting to contracts Homes and automobiles (arguably the next most expensive purchase after a home). When you buy a car it comes with a support organization and relationship that EXPECTS to profit from you in the future. When you buy a house the builder would like to terminate your relationship as soon as possible (often by inserting a 3rd party warranty company in the relationship).

Is the problem that such systems are too complex or expensive?
Is the housing industry too ignorant or reluctant to change?
Is it the lack of an "after sale" service and support structure (similar to car dealership relationships)?

What are your thoughts on the future of intelligent homes? Not just from a technology standpoint but from a business cycle standpoint.

Just my 2 cents as a non-professional.

I think for the most part, people and builders are still ignorant to the choices available now. That is partly due to the fact that there is no consistancy among products and manufactures. A strong set of protocols (like the B,G,A and N wireless protocols) would probably help with this. Right now there are just too many choices for the average person to understand or sort through.

Also, I think there is a big problem in that most people buy existing homes and don't build. Also the life expectancy of a house is decades longer than a car, so even after standards are accepted and used throughout the industry, it could be decades before there is a large % market share has any automation installed in it.

Then you have the problem of support. Things will go wrong. Without having some sort of support structure in place is going to be a problem. Devices will also need to be preinstalled and preprogramed for the average person to accept it. People have a hard enough time programming their car radio with the presets the want. Can you image expecting the average homeowner to program their lighting scenes?

But it comes down to the fact that people will have to see these things in action and see a need for them before there will be any support. Automatic climate controls in cars took a while to gain acceptance. "Why should I pay $500 to have the climate controlled for me when I've always done it manually." Only after a person experienced the automatic features that they fell in love with it and was willing to pay a premium to get it. The same will go for home automation. It has to become a "can't live without" device before people are going to be willing to spend an extra 10k, 20k, 100k on a house to get it. This will take a lot of time to achieve IMHO.

PS - welcome to cocoontech!

sic0048 said:

Just my 2 cents as a non-professional.

I think for the most part, people and builders are still ignorant to the choices available now. That is partly due to the fact that there is no consistancy among products and manufactures. A strong set of protocols (like the B,G,A and N wireless protocols) would probably help with this. Right now there are just too many choices for the average person to understand or sort through.

Also, I think there is a big problem in that most people buy existing homes and don't build. Also the life expectancy of a house is decades longer than a car, so even after standards are accepted and used throughout the industry, it could be decades before there is a large % market share has any automation installed in it.

Then you have the problem of support. Things will go wrong. Without having some sort of support structure in place is going to be a problem. Devices will also need to be preinstalled and preprogramed for the average person to accept it. People have a hard enough time programming their car radio with the presets the want. Can you image expecting the average homeowner to program their lighting scenes?

But it comes down to the fact that people will have to see these things in action and see a need for them before there will be any support. Automatic climate controls in cars took a while to gain acceptance. "Why should I pay $500 to have the climate controlled for me when I've always done it manually." Only after a person experienced the automatic features that they fell in love with it and was willing to pay a premium to get it. The same will go for home automation. It has to become a "can't live without" device before people are going to be willing to spend an extra 10k, 20k, 100k on a house to get it. This will take a lot of time to achieve IMHO.

PS - welcome to cocoontech!

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Thanks for the gracious welcome.

I agree it will probably take time for people to have experience with the benefits and want them.

I do think that if the process occurs "naturally" without some organization trying to influence it things may never catch on - standards will change too fast for a coherent adoption, much like they have in the traditional consumer electronics space where it's every man for himself. Look at what cabling standardization has done - that's one area where builders seem to have jumped on board (at least in our area) - many homes come with some type of structured cabling up front. I guess that's where some industry organizations like CEDIA have to have a strategy.

I also wonder if professionals are targeting the hi-tech car market. Seems like they would be a perfect candidate for Home Automation - they clearly have the income and the early adopter mentality. Partnerships with the local BMW/Mercedes/Lexus/Cadillac dealers might be a way to get in the door.

I'm skeptical that HA will look like what most of us have. It is just too complicated and expensive. I showed my dad my setup and he said:

1) I have a programmable t-stat
2) I turn off my lights when I'm done.
3) I listen to music in two rooms and I have two stereos.
4) I watch tv in two rooms and have 2 cable boxes with tivo
5) I have an alarm I don't use.

He's pretty technical, ran a banking company that had large data centers, he programs VCR's, TiVo, t-Stats and mechanical irrigation timers.

He has no desire for anything that requires maintenance that he can't do. He has less interest in UPB switches at 50-125 bucks a pop, controllers for a $1000 bucks or any form of distributed audio/video. He has plenty of money but clearly the value is pretty minimal for him.

People only have so much time and I see them figuring out free things facebook, myspace and twitter before they get to Elk.

Just my .02

As someone who's been in the HA business for 18 years now after all the hype is done it boils down to three things.

1. It's almost strictly a customer/Homeowner driven market at the moment.
2. Builders are cheap and don't want to spend the money for systems pre-installed. (see note 1)
3. Unlike cars there is
a. very little regulation to spur the install of such systems.
b. like has been pointed out most builders are not looking to sell you your next house so there is little incentive.

Different parts of the country/world are different and in some areas systems sell better than other areas. I figure I'll be retired long before the craze catches on big here on the east coast, at least for the average mid priced home. :rofl:

This is a good point in relation to why builders aren't looking for a long term relationship:

nightwalker said:

b. like has been pointed out most builders are not looking to sell you your next house so there is little incentive.

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Like an eariler post said, a lot of the convenience of automation has to be experienced before it is missed. Granted most people don't see why manually turning on/off lights is a big deal, but after a few years of it you complain bitterly when the system isn't working.

As far as the point of automation being complicated, I'm not sure I buy it. Today's cars are VERY complicated, but (up until the crash) seems like there is a car dealer on every corner here in Texas. Same holds true for most appliances and consumer electronics, yet people seem to embrace them like mad. Now, a complicated user interface, that's another story.

I think the user interface is what has not quite kept pace with what automation can do. Most if not all are either fairly complicated (read time consuming) to get setup or require a service visit. I don't see that improving anytime soon. If you think about it there are so many systems coming together in the interface that it's almost impossible to keep up. I've installed systems that have run for years with no service and then a homeowner calls for a couple of extra motion detectors or temp sensors, whatever and all of the sudden a half day relatively inexpensive job turns into the 2 day extravaganza with all the writing of rules to say how they will work and with what and then getting them all to show on the panels.

Cars or your new appliance comes with one interface designed to work with what's there, period. They're more like a stock security system. It may be complicated under the hood but I can throw up a panel and a keypad or two in a couple hours and it's all buzzing along looking very hi tech.

You make a valid point about changing interfaces. It's been my observation that in the beginning too many engineers were behind the interface design and the result was too much technical info. That's been changing in recent years, however. Take Apple, for example. Their use of graphics designers and interface designers are a large part of their success. Maybe more of that needs to occur in the Home Automation industry - companies like Savant?

I think, in some ways, yes, the time has come for intelligent homes but, it's still a weird mixed bag. I see two basic camps, both of which have been around for awhile. There's the general CT, DIY crowd who are willing to spend a lot of time and very little money on the hobby and there are the Parade of Homes types who've been exposed to Crestron, AMX, C4 and maybe HAI installs who are willing to spend very little time and a lot of money. In my experience, the former group seems to be creative, inquisitive, patient and wants feedback and control over EVERYTHING. The latter wants the same install they've seen before (or in the magazines, re: yawn), doesn't want to be bothered with how anything works, is incredibly inpatient and tends towards AV centric installs. In the end, they both get what they're after. It's the middle market that is yet to really get started.

Good analysis, Tony. The reason the 'middle market' isn't going to take off is because of the effort needed to program - DIY takes a lot of time and effort, or you pay someone to do it ($$$).

Unless programming is extraordinarily easy, with close to a 'cookie cutter' approach, the average Joe won't go for it.

If programming is brought down to the level of a 4th grader, using an elegantly designed PC-based GUI (with images), then MAYBE. Even better, sell the PC (locked down) with the system.

For the installation, the manufacturers need to enclose all circuits, making them invisible to the consumer. Instead of terminals, use push-in connectors. Scrap terms like RS485, and polarity. Automate the jumpers. Label connectors A,B,C. Get rid of the need to understand Ohm's Law. Just absolutely idiot-proof everything.

(How about a device that can switch from parallel to series wiring, automatically, onboard the controller?)

Edit - is M Terry a pseudonym for Julie Jacobson, researching a new article?

Neurorad said:

Edit - is M Terry a pseudonym for Julie Jacobson, researching a new article?

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I'm flattered, but no. Wrong gender as well. Just trying to spark a conversation.

Neurorad said:

Good analysis, Tony. The reason the 'middle market' isn't going to take off is because of the effort needed to program - DIY takes a lot of time and effort, or you pay someone to do it ($$$).

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From a business perspective the DIY market isn't a model to contrast. Most DIYers are in it for the challenge and experience, sort of like people who build custom cars - you do it for the fun AS WELL as the end product. Most car owners are in it for the end product, they don't have an interest in designing and building it.

That's one reason I started this post in the professional forum. DIY and Installer are very different. To be a successful business you MUST have a repeatable (cookie cutter) process. Sure you can R&D like the DIY side, but not in your customer's homes.

Like most of you I've been reading trade magazines like CE Pro for a number of year, and I'm often struck by the reluctance for the "commoditization" of the industry, but I think it's inevitable. You will never survive by a controlled distribution model as your primary reason for success. Especially with companies like Microsoft in the game. There will be more open competition, and your experience/customer service/value add will make the difference. Period.

Neurorad said:

Unless programming is extraordinarily easy, with close to a 'cookie cutter' approach, the average Joe won't go for it.

If programming is brought down to the level of a 4th grader, using an elegantly designed PC-based GUI (with images), then MAYBE. Even better, sell the PC (locked down) with the system.

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I think most consumers would prefer the "locked down" option, after some initial customization. There's probably a 6-12 month process of changes because (as pointed out earlier) most people don't understand what the systems are capable of, so it takes a while to define the final product as they become enlightened. This gap will shorten as automation becomes more commonplace.

Neurorad said:

For the installation, the manufacturers need to enclose all circuits, making them invisible to the consumer. Instead of terminals, use push-in connectors. Scrap terms like RS485, and polarity. Automate the jumpers. Label connectors A,B,C. Get rid of the need to understand Ohm's Law. Just absolutely idiot-proof everything.

Click to expand...

I think this is true from an installer perspective, not the consumer perspective.

I challenge the people that read this to NOT think about it as a DIYer. Most consumers don't want to install or tinker with these systems. They just want something that makes life easier, makes them feel more secure, and gives them information they need when they need it. That's probably why many early iterations of Home Automation implied a "butler" persona.

Speaking of Julie,
Here is a recap of a comment she had about similar conversation on Tom's Hardware, including her links to additional info on the subject.

juliejacobson1 06/21/2009 7:27 PM Hide-0+
May I suggest a few related articles? We (EH Publishing) are probably the home automation industry's greatest advocates, but we give an honest view of the industry as well.

Why Home Automation Manufacturers Fail
http://www.cepro.com/article/industry_insi...facturers_fail/


Why H.A. Manufacturers Fail: Revisited
http://www.cepro.com/article/why_ha_manufa...fail_revisited/


Road to Home Automation Standards Paved with Good Intentions
http://www.cepro.com/article/road_to_home_...ood_intentions/

Has Home Automation Standard Finally Arrived?
http://www.cepro.com/article/has_home_auto...control4_as_an/

It seems the short answer to my question from these articles is "No". Maybe automated homes aren't ready for the mainstream..

The Feds forced the automakers to include a computer in every car to control emissions. As long as it is there, and as long as it has a forest of wiring and sensors, it is relatively inexpensive to add a user interface to sell as a trip computer or whatever. The computerization is standardized across the product line, and the existing network of supporting dealers has diagnostic equipment and skilled maintenance people.

Does anyone's house have anything in common with the above? My builder put up four houses in my development, and they have little in common. Then one added an ADT system. My Elk system is a work in progress. Then the builder went bankrupt. There is no common thread among these homes, and there is certainly no common servicing agency. Until the housing industry finds some standardization in the automation industry so they can choose from compatible suppliers, this will be just a novelty. Even then, they need to demonstrate VALUE from their automation system that many homebuyers don't see. My builder provided programmable thermostats for my multi zone premium HVAC system for well under $200. Most buyers in my price range would prefer this to a system with a central controller that adds thousands to the price and requires a housecall to adjust or repair which costs more than my thermostats.

Photon, those are good points but I would like to qualify some of the comments.

The Feds forced emissions standards on the automakers, but it was the manufacturers choice to use computers to achieve the goal (as well as what computers and buss standards). I agree that once such a device is in place it's not much of a leap to add additonal value.

I would also argue that the security, electrical, plumbing, and HVAC systems of most homes have very much in common. It's interesting to note that these too all have some forms of government regulation involved.

So are we waiting for the first embedded computer to become standard in homes before we realize "everyday" home automation?

Interesting comments. Thanks.