The death of Zigbee and Z-wave?

Seems like big changes are on its way...
 
"...another chip company saying that ZigBee and Z-wave are doomed, as well as a good discussion how how to open up the internet of things."
 
http://gigaom.com/2013/06/27/podcast-freak-out-zigbee-and-z-wave-are-doomed/
 
 
 
Wow i'm just starting to get into this Z-wave thing then this? but is this a good thing or a bad thing.. i believe it's a good thing.. i think it will take time for this to become a reality so for now.. im still in the z-wave vs zigbee thing..lol
 
regards to all
 
I think all the proprietary protocols and technologies we use today will be outdated and archaic in 5-10 years.   Once you put a little computer into something like a light switch, it's viable lifetime goes from 50+ years to 5-10 years.  That just the way technology is.   And the individual devices usually carry a 1yr warranty and probably have an MBTF of 5 years as well.  Hopefully the future will not just bring ubiquitous automation but lower prices as well.  
 
That's one of the reasons I started using Wago wire nuts instead of the typical twist types.  Cause I know I am going to be back in that electrical box again, and eventually the wires break off with all the twisting.....  
 
The good news is that these vendors shenanigans of trying to spin up proprietary protocols in an effort to corner the market and lock users in is finally dying.  Even the Zigbee "standard" became fragmented because of this closeminded-ness.  Smarthome's INSTEON is a half implemented protocol with missing reliability features of common/standard layer-2 protocols because they tried to avoid standards so they could patent it.  The first vendor to invent and release a truly open and free standard would've won, but now it looks like the bigger players are stepping in.  Hopefully they will see the light.
 
wuench said:
The good news is that these vendors shenanigans of trying to spin up proprietary protocols in an effort to corner the market and lock users in is finally dying.  Even the Zigbee "standard" became fragmented because of this closeminded-ness.  Smarthome's INSTEON is a half implemented protocol with missing reliability features of common/standard layer-2 protocols because they tried to avoid standards so they could patent it.  The first vendor to invent and release a truly open and free standard would've won, but now it looks like the bigger players are stepping in.  Hopefully they will see the light.
 
It is (dying)?  Insteon was also trying to avoid existing patents. 
 
XaP
ONE-NET
Contiki
6LoWPAN
 
It is not enough to create the standard, you have to drive adoption.  But you also have to enforce the standard.  Catch-22.  During product development your engineers are going to tell you that they can ship a lot faster doing it their own way than someone else's way.  Of course the business side is going to apply pressures that lead to compromises. 
 
So while a standard for the communication channel itself is valuable and fairly easy to proliferate (802.11, 802.15, etc.), the best solution is to open the rest of the stack to custom scripting so that a product is then completely interoperable with everything else using that communication channel (assuming someone writes the code, which when looking at Arduino and Android as examples is not hard to believe) and beyond with channel bridging devices.
 
Zigbee won't go away any time soon, it's used in almost all smart meters that utilities have been rolling out, as well as other industrial stuff.  While it might disappear from consumer HA (i.e. the Home Automation profile), it will linger on.
 
I don't think really any of the two protocols are "doomed" per say.  I think they may evolve a bit.  There will be more automation protocols to come.
 
Many users on this forum have played with many automation protocols and have settled on some methodology for automation.
 
They have learned what works for them and have also abandoned what didn't work for them or just added more automation protocols to their home automation.
 
I started to utilize X-10 in the late seventies.  I am still utilizing it today.  It "worked" just fine in my old home for nearly 30 years.  All I cared about then was that I could tell my lights via a computer interface to go on and utilize some sort of scheduling for said stuff.
 
The only X10 feedback that I got at the time was a visual looking at the lights. 
 
The changes coming relate to bringing automation to the masses on a monthly per charge basis. 
 
What is good or bad or right or not right isn't indicative when using various marketing methodologies. 
 
Whatever technology is utilized folks will assume based on the marketing efforts put forth; "if so and so is using said technology; it must be the right stuff to use". 
 
That is the way its always been.   
 
i'm not sure what qualcomm's had success in other than mobile chip set/processors.  their flo tv was a debacle.  as for zwave going away, people have been saying x10 is crap for decades, yet it's still in use.  and when bluetooth first came out, it was the going to be the next big thing...
 
Z-Wave is here to stay.  It has the largest market share out of any HA technology as there are so many companies offering it direct to consumers.  With Leviton's VRC0P, Z-Wave can work with almost any HA controller, and any DIY person can program a network with easy to use software such as Leviton's RF Installer Tool.
 
Unfortunately even neat technologies like zigbee don't seem to be as DIY friendly.  I'd love to try zigbee as I've seen it work with thousands of devices at one time and still work super fast, but I don't think I can just purchase some Control4 zigbee dimmers and use it with any RS232 zigbee controller?  Where is the zigbee equivalent to the VRC0P and Leviton's RF Installer Tool?
 
Maybe having all light switches IP enabled will be more open as you will not need a central controller, but I doubt it.
 
None of them are here forever.  I have been doing HA for 18 years and I have upgraded my lighting 3 times.   There is no reason to believe Insteon, ZWave, ZigBee, UPB, RadioRA, etc will be around in 10 years.  I am not knocking them, it's just the way technology is.  We are starting to see the wifi bulbs now and In 10 years there will probably be all kinds of wifi switches and/or control devices around based on whatever wifi protocol variant is popular and that too won't last forever and will be replaced by the next 802.11whatever.  The wifi chips are so cheap (and usually come with GPS and bluetooth on board) that it is easier for a manufacturer to drop one of those in, than to go out and develop a whole new protocol and make their own chips, etc.  Shoot, in 20 years we may even have wireless power, outlets no longer used or needed.  Just my opinion on what's gonna happen...
 
That is what I get out of that link.  And I don't disagree, or think it is any surprise.  It's certainly not a reason to not buy ZWave or Zigbee today, they are as strong as any option out there.  It's like buying any other consumer electronics or PC or mobile phone, you can't sit around waiting for the next big thing, or you will never buy one.  Just once you jump in, be prepared, you are now on the upgrade train.  The only way to avoid it is to maybe stock up on extra switches, that might buy you another 5 or so years.
 
The thing about z-wave, zigbee, UPB, and Insteon that is very different from say your bluetooth device, is that people really and truly do not replace their light switches every couple years.  This isn't a cell phone with a 2-year contract that you can just throw away.  It is a big deal to redo your home automation.  Even if the new adopters of these technologies drops off as something "better" comes to market, there will be all of the old customers who will hold onto these technologies and continue to provide a profit for the manufacturers.  And if your lucky, the manufacturer of your brand will transition to the new technology with bridge devices that go both ways.  
 
I do see some trending relating to "what is easy" and "what is cheap" that appears to overtake "what is better"....
 
Look what happened when Radio Shack dumped their Z-Wave stuff...personally I went to three local Radio Shacks (4 as one RS manager was holding his stock for local contractors) and literally purchased everything on display on their racks.  (I have not used most of it to date).  I also purchased a bunch of the Schlage cameras modifying them for my own needs a the price of next to nothing....(not really using those either today)....meanwhile "upgraded" rest of my Insteon switches to UPB last summer at a cost of way more than the sale price of the Z-Wave switches... 
 
There were some folks though that decided it was time to switch or upgrade the legacy HA switches over to Z-Wave; and not so much because of the technology but rather the price of the switch....today too its quickly going to an HA price per month as long as it works on an Android or Iphone...what does matter what the technlogy is ....
 
I will say that I don't want WiFi light switches/dimmers. Without separating them to a WLAN they would be too vulnerable for attack - this has already been proven. This could result in someone else controlling your lights, or worse a switch catching fire (rapid turn on/off). It's already easy enough with a Zwave network once you enable control via Elk or other external means.
 
I also question the lag that exists from time to time with wi-fi.  I love the wi-fi concept, and use it for a lot, but lag is sometimes an issue.
 
I suppose if I could have control of individual light bulbs with it, I could maybe get excited about it. 
 
Zigbee and Z-Wave encompass much more than just packet transmission. These protocols also define device application protocols, command classes, or "profiles". Getting a wide variety of load control slaves to properly respond to controllers is no easy task. This is why there are a variety of Zigbee profiles and not every "equivalent" Z-Wave manufactured device implements the same set of Z-Wave command classes.
 
These wireless mesh routing protocols avoid having to add wireless repeaters; thus decreasing costs.
 
drvnbysound said:
I will say that I don't want WiFi light switches/dimmers. Without separating them to a WLAN they would be too vulnerable for attack - this has already been proven. This could result in someone else controlling your lights, or worse a switch catching fire (rapid turn on/off). It's already easy enough with a Zwave network once you enable control via Elk or other external means.
Or simply checking whether you are home. I agree, I don't want my home automation on my network. I would rather have a separate system with one bridge device that can be easily updated for security purposes. Not to mention the issues with having very large numbers of IP devices on your network.

The other issue about future technologies displacing existing ones is product line breadth. There have been a ton of smart light bulb solutions. How many of those also have keypads, motion sensors, low voltage control, window dressing control? How many of those integrate with the smart thermostats? Etc. To be a real competitor it needs to be a full product line. Otherwise it's a novelty. Looking at Insteon, Zigbee... it has taken the better part of a decade to get there.

People keep reinventing the parts of home automation that already work. I have light control already, it works fine. That's not helpful. What needs reinvention is the UI. That doesn't depend on inventing new hardware.
 
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