Its really not fair to compare the two standards because they are very different. Z-Wave emerged as a specific solution to a problem, basically a wireless replacement for X-10 like devices. Zen Sys is a business and its goal was to sell a product and make money at it. It was designed by a group of engineers there to be cost effective, and to get the job done. For the most part it does that. But being a technology created by one company and licensed in limited ways, it is also limited. Because z-Wave chips are all designed from the same parent, devices all inter-operate and they generally operate how they should. As a negative, like most commercial products, the goal was to get the product out the door and start getting revenue from it. They didn't spend a whole lot of time future-proofing it, because that would cost money, and there wouldn't even be a future unless they started selling these things.
ZigBee originated from the IEEE and was a standard created by committee. There was no pressure to quickly commercialize it, instead MANY stakeholders wanted an open very flexible technology they could use for future products. ZigBee started with some specific goals, but has more and more companies started to put their input into the standard, it got very far-reaching. In many ways, ZigBee is much bigger than Bluetooth, because by its nature of being a very low-power mesh wireless network, it fits into more applications than does Bluetooth, which was envisioned as a type of wireless USB cable replacement from the start. Bluetooth is about low-power point-to-point short-range communications, or at least it was at the start. ZigBee is about very low power longer-range communications. Lower throughput, longer battery life, longer range.
The good part of ZigBee, its flexibility, is that also is its Achilles heel. Because the standard was designed to meet so many applications, and there were so many stakeholders involved, it took a LONG time to develop. In addition, because Z-Wave was doing just fine moving along in the home automation area, this was the one area where ZigBee has lagged, because if your company is going to sell commercial home automation products, why not use Z-Wave, which has traction, instead of ZigBee, with little customer base? A few companies, like Control4 saw the advantages of ZigBee, and since outside interoperability wasn't an issue wasn't a concern, they went with ZigBee over the more popular Z-Wave because they saw the potential and cost was not the biggest concern for their customers.
For anyone that doesn't know, ZigBee is a whole lot more than a home automation chip technology. It uses an 802.15.4 radio standard that is now being used by a standard called RF4CE that eventually will replace IR remotes. (DirecTV, Sony, and many others already use it.) In addition ZigBee has many types of profiles used in all different industries, most of which are way beyond what Z-Wave could even dream about. For example the Philips Hue bulb uses ZigBee lightlink. The Cosmopolitan in Las Vegas has all its lights controlled by ZigBee. Millions of smartmeters and electric car chargers use the ZigBee Smart Energy profile. Medical products communicate over ZigBee. And new ZigBee "profiles" are being introduced all the time. The ZigBee chips are the same for all these uses, but the firmware is different.
Eventually more companies in the home automation space will start offering many more products, but ZigBee chips need to get cheaper first. ZigBee is MUCH more complex than Z-Wave and as such chips cost more. ZigBee chips are firmware upgradable over the wireless network, and they have a MUCH larger program space. Z-Wave chips are much simpler and not upgradable. ZigBee can also be MUCH more secure than Z-Wave, to the point where ZigBee can be used for very secure applications.
There is NO question that in the next 5-10 years we will get to the point where ZigBee chips, because of their high volume, will become cheaper than Z-Wave chips in the home automation area, and more companies will start making products for them. At this point you may see many Z-Wave companies flipping over to ZigBee, and the number of the Z-Wave products will decrease in number. But this will take time. Years.
So which is "better?" We'll I don't think anyone that really understands the technology would say that Z-Wave is technologically "better" than ZigBee, but it certainly Z-wave is cheaper and there are more Z-Wave devices to pick from currently. Which has a better "future?" That depends how far your "future" is. At some point the available number of ZigBee home automation devices will surpass Z-Wave. This could be in 2 years, or 5 years, or 10 years.
This area is no different than any other area. No one technology dominates forever. If the devices available in Z-Wave meet your needs, and you can do what you want with it, why do you need to look any further? If you want the future, and are willing to pay more for it and have limited device choices for a few years, ZigBee might be the way to go. ZigBee is unstoppable at this point. But when it will be the most popular wireless home automation standard is an unknown.
As a disclaimer, I use UPB for most lighting, and use ZigBee for my 4 thermostats, 3 door locks, two pool pumps, and two lights. ZigBee works great. I have never used Z-Wave. I also was a wireless analyst who consulted with big companies on wireless technologies, and I have good relationships with both the ZigBee Alliance and the Z-Wave Alliance.