So....
After sleeping on this a couple times, as well as playing a bit with Home Assistant to see what's possible (because it's easier than buying a hub for experimentation not because I think it is necessarily the answer)....
I'm still struggling with a rationale for spending twice as much (or more) to go with RA2 Select or RA2.
@Work2Play maybe hit the strongest case, that "call almost any electrician" if you need to sell the house. I can see that. I'm in a big subdivision where many of the homes include pre-done automation by Pulte. Here they use a local company for those, and I checked what they install -- Caseta. Not RA2. So there's not only an option, but the local recommended option will do caseta.
More to the point, I counted wall switches, and got 38. Total. Not a large house. And that includes items like bathroom fans I know I won't do (I prefer those little button timers there). So even if I did all, and added a few picos, I'm a reasonable distance away. I'm not counting sensors, but I suspect I would do those in a hub not in Caseta.
Plus, Homeseer, Home Assistant and Hubitat (three I checked) all say they support multiple Caseta bridges. So there's a fallback.
Trust me... I love buying fancier gadgets as much as anyone, so I've been trying to talk myself into RA2. I just haven't been able to justify the extra cost and at least as relevant the trouble to go through the hoops of their distribution channel.
I spent some time looking back at UPB (which had I zero trouble with in many years) but it just feels like there is not a lot of future there.
I think the biggest hesitations so far are:
1) Not crazy about the ramp up/down not being adjustable, but that's kind of a nit.
2) Trying to decide how the flat, 4-button switch will work in the dark when you feel around for a light switch, especially if there are guests here.
3) There's a fair amount of angst over the last couple years on forums when Lutron just randomly does a bridge update and stuff stops working, because they are tied in via undocumented techniques.
I'm leaning toward just picking up a half dozen or so at Home Depot this morning, and starting a swap-out. Oddly they seem as cheap there as online (energyavenue has them cheaper but you pay shipping, and instant gratification is a real thing).