NeverDie
Senior Member
RAL said:...
So if you buy a new smoke detector every year, vs keeping the same one for 10 years, it will not necessarily give you better reliability. It might even be worse due to the chance of early life failures.
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In my opinion, you can't get away from the need for frequent testing of the smokes. And you need to have enough smokes installed to give you adequate redundancy in the event that one does fail. It's just the way it is.
I think I may understand what you mean about bathtub curves and the likelihood of any one smoke alarm failing in any given year. I'll concede the point you're making. However, if you try repeating your math with a set of 10 alarms, do you arrive at a different conclusion? If you have no foreknowledge of a reliability difference between between a $12 alarm and a $129 alarm (i.e. the expected failure rate for each is random and roughly 3% per year), then assuming the $12 alarms are replaced every year and the $129 alarms are kept for 10 years, I'm pretty sure the odds of four out of ten $12 alarms failing during the one year between replacements will be much lower than four out of ten $129 alarms failing over a 10 year period. True? Also, to upgrade the example, I suspect an alarm used over 10 years to have greater odds of drift and diminished sensitivity than one that's fresh every year. I don't know whether the 3% figure would classify that as a failure, or whether it accounts for that all. If the test button doesn't check for that, then your alarm might be impaired even if it tests OK. In short, depending on what it actually tests and how well it tests, even the recommended obsessive weekly testing using the test button might be delivering mostly false comfort. I have a hunch UL217 might spell out what the test button should be testing, but I don't have a copy of UL217 that's recent, and the 1993 version I referenced is garbled in a lot of places.
Also, I'll concede your point about the $129 alarm having two way wireless and the $12 doesn't. That's a distraction though. I wasn't trying to argue that a $129 alarm that has features you value that a $12 alarm doesn't have should be priced at $12. I doubt you would replace a $129 smoke alarm every year, and so I wanted to compare expected reliability from picking $129 smoke alarms and keeping them for 10 years (as most would do) versus the reliability of cheaper alarms that you might replace more regularly. Also, my goal wasn't to beat up on the Elk alarm. I merely used the Elk-6050 because its price helped keep the math simple (10x the price but over a 10x time period), and was looking for a real device so as to make a concrete example. I don't think it will change the outcome regarding the comparative reliability of a set of 10 alarms if you prefer to pick some other ~$120 alarm that lacks two way wireless and other differences. Anyhow, feel free to formulate a different concrete example using alarms with more comparable features. As long as one is a lot more expensive than the other, the example (using a set of 10 alarms) could be adjusted by varying the replacement period, Unless my intuition is off, the reliability math should still favor the cheaper alarms with the shorter replacement cycle. Am I wrong? The example becomes interesting if most people think it wouldn't make a difference, if in fact re-doing the math with a set of 10 smoke detectors turns out to show a big difference in system reliability.
By the way, I'm also not against expensive alarms per se. I happen to think a more expensive smoke alarm might also be built with better components and/or with more manufacturing care, and so there's hope you might get more reliability. Or maybe not, if UL217 sets the reliability target and consumers have no other information about quality and reliability. This is where having actual public data would help steer people toward better, possibly more expensive alarms, or at least inform the tradeoff. That's why I was asking, earlier in the thread, where I might find such data, if it exists at all. At this point though, after searching (not exhaustively but pretty hard) and finding not even vague references to it, I'm doubting it exists.